Will There Be A Toronto Real Estate Pricing Correction?

Will There Be A Toronto Real Estate Pricing Correction

For the first time since the pandemic started, new listing volumes have surpassed 2019 levels and show no signs of slowing down.

Percent Change of New Listings For Sale in Toronto, York, Peel, Halton, Durham
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However, with sold volumes still down an average of 42% across TREB and an overall shallow trend line, it seems that buyers don’t have the appetite, or maybe the means, to enter the market.

Percent Change of Sold Listings in Toronto, York, Peel, Halton, Durham
(Click to enlarge)

We’ve looked at the data and found 3 pricing trends to help you inform your clients and leads.

#1 - New listings are being priced at pre-pandemic prices...

Percent Change of Listing Prices For Sale in Toronto, York, Peel, Halton, Durham
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..., and the ones that are selling are above 0-10% of the list price.

Percent Change of Sold Prices in Toronto, York, Peel, Halton, Durham
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#2 - Listings that sell are selling 11% faster than the same period last year...

Percent Change in Days On Market in Toronto, York, Peel, Halton, Durham
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..., with the average days on the market between 7 to 11 days.

Average Days On Market in Toronto, York, Peel, Halton, Durham
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#3 - Absorption rate is at least half the rate of the same period last year across all municipalities...

Absorption Rate in Toronto
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..., although the previous trends are favourable, the chart above shows the rate of homes sales is slowing. As the absorption rate decreases the number of days to sell increases.

Note: we're calculating the absorption rate using a weekly timeframe as opposed to the more traditional 3-6 month timeframe. Watch the webinar to learn why.


KEY TAKEAWAY

There is a strong indication that supply is greater than demand due to the growing inventory and a decreased absorption rate.

If sellers are unable to wait until more buyers enter the market, we could see a small 5-10% price correction to help bring buyers back.

As always, we'll continue to analyze the Greater Toronto Area real estate data and send out updates. We hope this helps you when speaking with your clients and leads.


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